Banks are retreating. Smart lenders are advancing.

The commercial real estate lending landscape just shifted in ways most players are missing. While banks pull back from what was their traditional territory, alternative lenders captured significant market share in Australia's commercial property lending market.

That represents a substantial increase from previous periods. More telling? Debt funds saw a significant surge in origination volume.

You're witnessing the most dramatic shift in commercial real estate lending power in decades.

The Numbers Tell a Different Story

Here's what the retreat looks like from your perspective as a large non-bank lender. Banks moving from 85% per cent to 70% per cent of the Australian commercial real estate debt market in the last decade creates something interesting.

A$45 billion financing gap in the Australian market.

This creates the opportunity.

The lenders who can scale fastest, deploy capital most efficiently, and process deals with the greatest speed will capture disproportionate market share. The window won't stay open forever.

Technology Becomes Your Competitive Weapon

You already know that traditional lending processes move too slowly for this environment. What you might not realise is how dramatically technology can accelerate your competitive position.

The most successful lenders in 2025 are using data analytics and AI to transform their underwriting processes. AI algorithms analyse vast amounts of information at incredible speeds, evaluating property performance metrics and assessing borrower creditworthiness with precision that reduces default risk.

Speed matters when a significant portion of Australian commercial mortgages face refinancing pressure. That represents billions in loans requiring new financing solutions.

Your borrowers need certainty. They need speed. They need global access to capital sources.

The Refinancing Wave Changes Everything

The maturity wall creates urgency, but it also creates leverage for prepared lenders. Approximately A$45 billion of Australian commercial real estate mortgages will require refinancing through to 2026.

Residential and mixed-use developments account for a significant portion of that maturing loan volume.

Smart lenders are positioning to lend at significant discounts to replacement cost, often at 50 per cent of peak valuations. You can earn low-to-mid teens gross returns on mezzanine-like exposure at loan-to-value ratios near 65 per cent.

Those are equity-like returns at favourable positions in the capital structure.

Global Access Becomes Table Stakes

Your borrowers operate globally. Their financing should too.

The traditional model of working through multiple regional lenders, each with different processes, documentation requirements, and timelines, creates friction that costs deals. Large property developers and real estate investment trusts need streamlined access to both domestic and international financing options.

The lenders who can provide verified, full due-diligence tracing for large KYC'd clients across Australia and internationally will capture the most attractive deals. Technology platforms that standardise processes across markets give you competitive advantage.

The Strategic Play Forward

Industry experts call this "a once-in-a-generation opportunity." The most significant CRE downturn since the global financial crisis is starting to recover. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decisions in 2025 will significantly impact financing conditions.

You have the capital. You have the expertise. The question becomes whether you have the infrastructure to capture market share at speed.

The lenders who invest in digital transformation now, who can process deals faster and provide global access to capital sources, will emerge as market leaders. The ones who stick to traditional processes will watch opportunities flow to more agile competitors.

The market shifted. Your strategy should too.